Difference between revisions of "Expected Value"
(→Context) |
(→Context) |
||
| (4 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
| Line 2: | Line 2: | ||
The value of an expected outcome given the probabilities. | The value of an expected outcome given the probabilities. | ||
==Context== | ==Context== | ||
| − | Compare this with the [[Utility Function]] as both focus on the greatest value for the greatest number, and so do not guarantee a minimum expectation for every individual. | + | * Compare this with the [[Utility Function]] as both focus on the greatest value for the greatest number, and so do not guarantee a minimum expectation for every individual. |
| + | * Compare this with the [[Least Action]] principle that predicts the path of least action, or shortest time, will be followed. | ||
| + | * Start by asserting that an AI is a [[Workload]] with a persistent identity and changes to that [[Workload]] and changes to its identity need to be clearly articulated. Identify the Mind - not the Brain! - note when we talk about knowledge from Wittgenstein or Kant, we need to state the age(period) when the statement was made. | ||
==Quantum Physics== | ==Quantum Physics== | ||
| − | The only result from the | + | The only result from the Schrödinger equation is the probability amplitude. As describe by Feynman, the [[Expected Value]] is obtained the the sum of all paths between the source and the destination. |
| + | |||
==Gambling== | ==Gambling== | ||
Gamblers are [[Expected Value]] maximizers, that is they will take the bet when the [[Expected Value]] is greater than than the cost. These people are said to live “on the river”. | Gamblers are [[Expected Value]] maximizers, that is they will take the bet when the [[Expected Value]] is greater than than the cost. These people are said to live “on the river”. | ||
Riverians worry that Villagers are stifling competition by increasingly focusing on equity of outcomes rather than equality of opportunity.<ref>Nate Silver ‘’On the Edge’’. ISBN 9781594204128</ref> | Riverians worry that Villagers are stifling competition by increasingly focusing on equity of outcomes rather than equality of opportunity.<ref>Nate Silver ‘’On the Edge’’. ISBN 9781594204128</ref> | ||
| + | |||
| + | ===Venture Capital=== | ||
| + | For all of their success, almost every VCs lives with FOMO = Fear of Missing Out. They tend to never say no, but seldom say yes. | ||
| + | |||
| + | The asymmetric nature of payoffs in Venture Capital is key to understanding how it is allocated. They must understand the [[Expected Value]] and avoid letting the big winner get away. | ||
==References== | ==References== | ||
[[Category: Physics]] | [[Category: Physics]] | ||
Latest revision as of 09:05, 7 July 2025
Contents
Full Title or Meme
The value of an expected outcome given the probabilities.
Context
- Compare this with the Utility Function as both focus on the greatest value for the greatest number, and so do not guarantee a minimum expectation for every individual.
- Compare this with the Least Action principle that predicts the path of least action, or shortest time, will be followed.
- Start by asserting that an AI is a Workload with a persistent identity and changes to that Workload and changes to its identity need to be clearly articulated. Identify the Mind - not the Brain! - note when we talk about knowledge from Wittgenstein or Kant, we need to state the age(period) when the statement was made.
Quantum Physics
The only result from the Schrödinger equation is the probability amplitude. As describe by Feynman, the Expected Value is obtained the the sum of all paths between the source and the destination.
Gambling
Gamblers are Expected Value maximizers, that is they will take the bet when the Expected Value is greater than than the cost. These people are said to live “on the river”. Riverians worry that Villagers are stifling competition by increasingly focusing on equity of outcomes rather than equality of opportunity.[1]
Venture Capital
For all of their success, almost every VCs lives with FOMO = Fear of Missing Out. They tend to never say no, but seldom say yes.
The asymmetric nature of payoffs in Venture Capital is key to understanding how it is allocated. They must understand the Expected Value and avoid letting the big winner get away.
References
- ↑ Nate Silver ‘’On the Edge’’. ISBN 9781594204128
