Expected Value

Full Title or Meme

The value of an expected outcome given the probabilities.

Context

• Compare this with the Utility Function as both focus on the greatest value for the greatest number, and so do not guarantee a minimum expectation for every individual.
• Compare this with the Least Action principle that predicts the path of least action, or shortest time, will be followed.

Quantum Physics

The only result from the Schrödinger equation is the probability amplitude. As describe by Feynman, the Expected Value is obtained the the sum of all paths between the source and the destination.

Gambling

Gamblers are Expected Value maximizers, that is they will take the bet when the Expected Value is greater than than the cost. These people are said to live “on the river”. Riverians worry that Villagers are stifling competition by increasingly focusing on equity of outcomes rather than equality of opportunity.

Venture Capital

For all of their success, almost every VCs lives with FOMO = Fear of Missing Out. They tend to never say no, but seldom say yes.

The asymmetric nature of payoffs in Venture Capital is key to understanding how it is allocated. They must understand the Expected Value and avoid letting the big winner get away.