Singularity

Full Title or Meme

A Singularity is an artifact of continuous mathematical functions that can be taken to the limit, whether very small or very large.

This page is specifically about how increasingly rapid technology solutions will lead to changes to the human condition.

Prediction

The first known reference to the Singularity came from the science fiction author Vernor Vinge in "True Names" and other novels. Later he wrote up his predictions for a Conference.

Within thirty years [ie 2023], we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. Is such progress avoidable? If not to be avoided, can events be guided so that we may survive? These questions are investigated. Some possible answers (and some further dangers) are presented.

Note below a report of a verbal exchange between John von Neumann and Stanislaw Olam where the concept was discussed.

Mathematical Context

One of the more complex functions which is visible in the laboratory is fluid-flow formulae which can be made to operate in regions where singularities occur. In the years leading up to 2023 researchers found singular solutions to the Euler equation. Now we have a proof that true, stable singularities can be sustained in specially constructed geometries. Basically the researchers created a boundary between two stable fluid regimes where the singularity was maintained. In these cases neither the mathematics nor the computer simulations are powerful enough to show the actual behavior. Continuous mathematical solutions can only work in the spaces between the infinitely large and the infinitely small. In those regions, the model is no no longer helpful.

This finding is one proof point in the statement All Models are Wrong, click that link for details.

Human Context

Von Neumann was deeply aware of the accelerating pace of progress and the profound implications of this progression for humanity's future, which brings us to the fifth key idea of the information age. A year after von Neumann's death in 1957, fellow mathematician Stan Ulam quoted von Neumann as having said that "the ever accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life give the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue." This is the first known use of the word "singularity" in the context of human history.

As a general rule, where technology change, whither in concept or in impact to the human condition occurs faster than the change of a human generation (30 years) society will adapt without great disruption. From the time of the Luddites' attack on the loss of the cottage weaving industry there have been violet reactions to the introduction of changes that destroy the peaceful living conditions of a large population society has had to adapt in ways that were not acceptable to those impacted by the change. Conservative Systems, both economic and political have exacerbated the disruption by refusal to adapt soon enough to prevent the reaction to that disruption.

Solutions

The people that create the change, both technologists and venture capitalists have offered controversial solutions―such as monetizing internet usage, making companies pay for personal information, and placing reasonable limits on free speech. But this debate needs to begin now, before the Autonomous Revolution overcomes us.